The guys who do statistical analysis for baseball started a website for college basketball, www.basketballprospectus.com

It’s pretty cool, and they have their Pac-10 preview published online.

Team	2007 Pythagorean Wins	% Returning Minutes	2008 Prediction
UCLA	14.4	81.4	14-4
Stanford	10.3	82.0	12-6
Washington St	12.9	80.5	11-7
Arizona	11.4	48.9	10-8
USC	11.3	48.4	9-9
Washington	7.9	71.1	9-9
California	5.7	79.5	8-10
Oregon	9.5	77.4	8-10
Arizona St	4.4	78.8	6-12
Oregon St	2.8	46.2	3-13

CALIFORNIA

What California did well: Get assists from their point guards.

Ayinde Ubaka finished up a four-year career as starting point guard at Cal with what was his easily his best season. He posted his best numbers in two-point and three-point shooting while shooting more frequently than in his previous three seasons. He made the transition from being a pass-first, shoot-rarely point guard as a freshman and sophomore to a dynamic offensive threat in his senior season. He wasn't overly selfish, as he managed to assist on about a quarter of his teammates' baskets, also the highest mark of his career.

While Ubaka's career was admirable, his backup last season should end up having a better career. Casual fans, especially ones who don't live in the Pacific time zone, are probably not familiar with Jerome Randle. That will change this season. Randle was able to take some minutes from Ubaka last season, and in his time on the floor he assisted on more of his teammates' made baskets than did the starter. Randle wasn't as efficient as Ubaka on offense--he was only able to shoot 46.1% (eFG)--but an encouraging sign for Cal fans was that Randle was able to take 22.2% of his team's shots while on the court. It's encouraging because Randle is listed at 5'9", so you'd expect him to have some trouble getting off his shot. It's also encouraging because so few freshmen point guards shoot and distribute as much as Randle did. The list from the last three seasons includes only two other point guards from power conferences: Dominic James in 2006 and Javaris Crittenton in 2007.

What we learned in 2007: DeVon Hardin's value is disproportionately on defense.

One of the worst breaks for any Pac-10 team in 2007 was when Cal lost junior center DeVon Hardin to a broken foot 11 games into the season. There was some uncertainty surrounding what Hardin would do during his third season in Berkeley. Cal power forward Leon Powe had the highest usage of any Pac-10 player in 2006, then took off for the NBA. Hardin emerged alongside Powe as an elite defensive rebounder and a very good shot blocker. Hardin also quietly made advances in his offensive game. So with no Powe, what would Hardin's game look like in '07? In what little we saw of him, his defensive game was identical to his sophomore season. (In truth, his sophomore defensive rebounding and blocks numbers weren't a surprise; his rate stats were identical to his freshman season when he played more sparingly.) Offensively, Hardin picked up some of the slack that Powe left in terms of usage, but against a fairly weak non-conference schedule, he still couldn't get his shooting percentage to 50%.

It's clearer to compare Cal's performance in terms of points per possession against the Pac-10 in 2006 and 2007.

Year OE DE

2006 1.02 0.98

2007 1.03 1.12

Cal's offense was about as effective even without Powe, but the defense took a major hit, and was the reason for the Bears' drop in the conference standings in 2007. Powe was an effective defender, but no doubt, the absence of DeVon Hardin was at least equally to blame for Cal's poor defense in '07.

What's in store for 2008: If we could gaze into the crystal ball and know that Coach Ben Braun could count on the health of his roster this season, then there would be reason for optimism in Berkeley. They absolutely need their defense to improve significantly, and that's not going to happen without DeVon Hardin in the lineup for 25-30 minutes per game. With Hardin on the bench (or in the trainer's room), Cal would have to rely on either 7'0" Jordan Wilkes, who sat out last season with an eight minutes a game in '07 while being one of the most reluctant shooters in the conference.

With all the big bodies, the Bears won't have to do what they did last season: play 6'10" Ryan Anderson in the middle, where he struggled defensively. In a throwaway season, Anderson was one of the most productive freshmen in the nation, at least on the offensive end. However, his production dropped after Hardin went down. This was almost surely due to the coinciding increase in competition and improved scouting rather than the nominal change in position. Anderson continued to base much of his game on the perimeter during the conference season, but his three-point FG% dropped from 46 to 34% without Hardin in the lineup. Likewise, his two-point FG% dropped from 57 to 51%. Much is expected of Anderson this season, but there is plenty of room for improvement in his game.

Cal still lacks a dynamic scorer from the wing or shooting guard positions. They'll be looking at some combination of juniors Omar Wilkes and Theo Robertson, and sophomore Patrick Christopher, to get most of the minutes at that position, but none was a very effective scorer in 2006. Wilkes is the most dangerous, posting an eFG% of 55.3 while taking 19.9% of his team's shots. Robertson is recovering from leg surgery that has kept him off the court all summer. Cal also brings in Duke transfer Jamal Boykin, who will be eligible for the second semester. By virtue of his being a Duke transfer, expectations are too high for Boykin. He played 100 minutes during his Duke career, took 19 shots and committed 21 fouls.

Then there's the point position. Randle is a good darkhorse pick to beat out Darren Collison for the conference's assist title. He has a few things going for him. He has already demonstrated the ability to distribute. His two most prolific scoring teammates, Anderson and Hardin, have microscopic assist rates, indicating their singular focus of putting the ball in the hoop when they get it. Finally, Randle should get huge minutes. Two years ago, Ubaka played 37 minutes per game when he was the only point guard Braun trusted. Randle should be in a similar situation in 2008.

Randle's assist total will be a good indicator for Cal's success. If Anderson and Hardin can convert passes into baskets more often than they have previously in their career, Cal's offense will be one of the better ones in the conference, and Randle's assist total will soar. Combine that with a respectable defense, and the Bears season will have some intrigue into March.

Here are the results of my pre-season baseball bets:

Chicago White Sox under 87.5 wins
Chicago White Sox - 72 wins

I thought the White Sox offense would "regress back toward the mean", but they did more than that. They were last in the AL in runs scored.

Arizona Diamondbacks over 78.5 wins
Arizona Diamondbacks win NL West
Arizona Diamondbacks - 90 wins, won NL West

I correctly predicted that the Diamondbacks would be this year's Detroit Tigers, but I can't take too much credit for this since I didn't expect them to do so while being outscored by their opponents.

Los Angeles Dodgers under 88.5 wins
Los Angeles Dodgers - 82 wins

Here was my comment before the season started:
"The Dodgers had one of the best offenses in the NL last year, but I don't see how they're going to repeat that if they choose to play Juan Pierre and Luis Gonzalez over more talented players like Matt Kemp. Randy Wolf and Brett Tomko don't inspire much confidence at the back of the rotation."

The Dodgers were 10th out of 16 NL teams in runs scored.
Juan Pierre: 668 AB, .685 OPS
Luis Gonzalez: 464 AB, .793 OPS
Matt Kemp: 292 AB, .894 OPS
Randy Wolf: 102.7 IP, 4.73 ERA
Brett Tomko: 104.0 IP, 5.80 ERA

So that's 3 for 3 for my team over/unders, and none of these results were that close to the Vegas over/under mark. The Diamondbacks winning the NL West was 7-1.

Takashi Saito under 35.5 saves
Takashi Saito - 39 saves

I thought Saito would lose his closer's role, but I was totally wrong.

Justin Verlander under 15.5 wins
Justin Verlander - 18 wins

I thought Verlander would 1) pitch worse, 2) get less run support, 3) get less defensive support, and 4) get injured. I was wrong on all 4 counts.

0 for 2 for my player over/unders, with analysis that turned out to be wrong in every way possible.

I also made the following postseason bets:

Chicago Cubs to win division series against Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona won series 3-0

The Cubs seemed to have the advantage in starting pitching and offense before the series, but it sure didn't turn out that way.

Cleveland Indians to win division series against New York Yankees
Cleveland won series 3-1

Betting on Cleveland paid out $16 more for every $10 wagered. I thought Cleveland was a slight favorite going into the series, so this was an easy bet to make.

This is an actual work email chain that I was CC'ed on. My boss was also included on this email chain, and said that these guys are now in "Office Space" mode:

If anything I’ve written here does not jibe with the commentary from y’all below, that’s probably because I only skimmed the attached thread. Because y’all use a teeny-weeny font, which is a strain for us older folks to read. I could’ve highlighted all that text and increased the font size manually – but, yep, I’m too lazy to do so.

Gosh, all this hard thinkin’ has tuckered me out. Nap time……

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Is he picking on me because I said I was too lazy to write something up?

Young whipper-snappers.

I hope no one else is scanning these emails to see who's 'fessing up to being lazy.

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My boss knows that I haven’t done any actual work since about 1998. These days all I do is read and respond to e-mail, doze through conf calls, and tell other people what to do. It’s a sweet gig.