I'm betting that Justin Verlander won't win more than 15 games this year.

Here's why:
1) He will probably not pitch as well as he did last year.
His mediocre strikeout rate doesn't bode well for continued success.

2) The Tigers will not give him the same run support as they did last year.
The Tigers scored 6.77 runs per game when he pitched, 2nd most in the league.

3) The defense behind him will probably not be as good as last year's.
The Tigers were the most efficient defense in the AL last year, and will probably regress to the mean.

4) He will probably get injured.
He had over 200 IP last year (including playoffs), which is well above his previous high of 130 IP. The large jump in IP is extremely dangerous for a young pitcher.

I'm not saying that all of these things will happen, but I'm pretty sure that at least 2 of them will...