Here are my baseball bets this year. Until I get a better track record, I can't recommend these to anyone else...

Jose Contreras, under 14 wins. Health and performance risk.

From Baseball Prospectus' Team Health Reports:
"Yeah, he tossed 204.2 IP in 2005, but he has a history of nagging problems, his walk totals give us reason to worry about his arm's reliability as well as his control, and we were never totally sold on his age. Add in all that inconsistency while he was with the Yankees, and we're not convinced Contreras can repeat his 2005 and stay off of the DL. "

Mark Mulder, under 15 wins. Performance risk.

His strikeout rate has declined in 4 straight years, and the Cardinals don't appear to be as strong as they were last year.

Josh Beckett, under 15.5 wins. Health risk.

Again, from BP's Team Health Reports:
"His propensity to get injured is as undeniable as the quality of his stuff. Beckett bounced onto the disabled list twice last year, first for recurring blisters on his right middle finger, and later for a left oblique strain. Both of these injuries are chronic, and have prevented him from cracking the 200-inning threshold. Being forced to limit his innings at a young age could help him in the long run, but the Sox are counting on him to surpass his innings-pitched career high of 179.2, and that could pose a bit of a problem."

Jason Isringhausen, under 36 saves. Health risk.

Isringhausen seems to have one injury problem per year. It doesn't prevent him from being effective the rest of the time, but it might make it hard for him to get 36 saves.

Chicago White Sox, under 91.5 wins.

Based on their number of runs scored and allowed, the White Sox should've won about 90 games last year. Their bullpen and defense won't be as good as they were last year (Jenks looks awful, Hermanson is injured, Rowand is gone, Podsednik has nagging injury problems) and they'll probably run into more health issues.

Toronto Blue Jays, under 87 wins.

The Blue Jays have 2 major problems:
1) Every single member of their starting rotation has major injury concerns, as does Troy Glaus.
2) They have some star power (Burnett, Ryan, Glaus, Halladay, and Wells), but the other players are extremely mediocre and offer almost no upside.

[Edit] I decided not to bet on the Cardinals winning fewer than 93 games. Diamond Mind has the Cardinals winning 95 games. Considering their competition, I wouldn't be surprised to see that happen.

I did bet on the Yankees to win fewer than 97 games because I don't think their starting pitchers will stay healthy. I picked the Marlins to win more than 64 games because they have some promising players, and that should enable them to avoid 100 losses.