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Tuesday, February 28, 2006


Korea's World Baseball Classic schedule:

Opponent Time
Taiwan Thursday, March 2, 6:30 PM PST
China Friday, March 3, 6:00 PM PST
Japan Sunday, March 5, 1:00 AM PST

Like the World Cup, the top 2 teams in Pool A advance to the next round, so Korea will probably need to win 2 of these 3 games to advance to the 2nd round. There they would play in another pool consisting of the top 2 teams from Pool B (USA, Canada, Mexico, and South Africa).

Baseball Prospectus
ran simulations of Pool A and came up with the following probabilities:

Team Pool A Winner Pool A Runner-Up Advance to Round 2
Japan 50.5% 31.5% 82.0%
Korea 33.6% 37.8% 71.4%
Taiwan 14.8% 26.1% 41.0%
China 1.2% 4.6% 5.7%

But while BP thinks Korea is better than Taiwan, the Vegas oddsmakers disagree:

Team Pool A Winner
Japan 64.0%
Taiwan 19.9%
Korea 14.9%
China 1.2%

The consensus appears that Japan is the favorite and China is a huge underdog. This means that Thursday night's Korea vs Taiwan matchup has huge implications on who advances to Round 2. The winner will be well on their way, while the loser probably needs to upset Japan in order to have a chance to move on.


2 Comments:

hm. i'm torn. who should i root for? taiwan? i'm taiwanese. china? taiwanese people are essentially chinese (but don't tell any hardcore taiwanese people that). japan? i do enjoy the japanese culture quite so. ya, ok, korea. haha.

By Blogger basile with an e, at Wed Mar 01, 02:24:00 AM  

basile... you should just change your last name to Kim or Lee or Park

By Anonymous Anonymous, at Thu Mar 02, 02:22:00 PM  

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