Portality |
Sunday, October 02, 2005
Posted
11:26 PM
by Tommy
So my baseball bets didn't turn out so well this year. If I made the bets I wanted, I would've lost 14% on my investment...
A few lessons to learn from this experiment: 1) You just can't outsmart the Vegas sportsbooks. 2) There's a lot of variance in sportsbetting. Even though my bets were based on the results of 162 games for 12 different teams, the profitability of this investment came down to baseball's tiebreaker rules. Had the Red Sox won the tiebreaker to win the AL East championship, this investment would've returned a 21% profit. 3) Don't put all your eggs in one basket-- or even three. My top 3 investments were all losers, but 6 of my next 7 were winners. 4) I should stick to betting on season win totals-- I would've made a 20% profit had I done so. Picking division winners appears to be less profitable because there's a good chance that at least one other team in the division will play better than I expect... 2 Comments:
whatever makes you happy tommy... By Carroll, at Mon Oct 03, 07:51:00 PM but it made the season a lot more exciting...=) , at Post a Comment |