Portality


Sunday, October 02, 2005


So my baseball bets didn't turn out so well this year. If I made the bets I wanted, I would've lost 14% on my investment...

Team Investment Wager Vegas Actual Odds Return
LAA 31.77 Under 92 95 1.77 0.00
BOS 28.87 Win AL East
0 GB 3.00 0.00
OAK 28.79 Win AL West
7 GB 4.40 0.00
SD 19.67 Under 86 82 2.10 41.31
NYY 16.61 Under 101 95 1.77 29.39
TB 12.86 Under 71 67 1.77 22.75
CHW 12.73 Under 82 99 1.95 0.00
WAS 12.45 Over 71 81 1.83 22.82
PHI 12.24 Over 85 88 1.91 23.36
TOR 11.66 Over 71 80 1.87 21.79
PHI 11.73 Win NL East
2 GB 6.50 0.00
HOU 10.69 Under 82 89 1.91 0.00
NYM 10.69 Under 84 83 1.91 20.41
OAK 9.24 Over 82 88 1.77 16.36







S Green 10.00 Under 31 HR 22 1.80 18.00
D Jeter 10.00 Under 191 Hits 202 1.80 0.00







Overall 250.00



216.20






-14%

A few lessons to learn from this experiment:

1) You just can't outsmart the Vegas sportsbooks.

2) There's a lot of variance in sportsbetting. Even though my bets were based on the results of 162 games for 12 different teams, the profitability of this investment came down to baseball's tiebreaker rules. Had the Red Sox won the tiebreaker to win the AL East championship, this investment would've returned a 21% profit.

3) Don't put all your eggs in one basket-- or even three. My top 3 investments were all losers, but 6 of my next 7 were winners.

4) I should stick to betting on season win totals-- I would've made a 20% profit had I done so. Picking division winners appears to be less profitable because there's a good chance that at least one other team in the division will play better than I expect...


2 Comments:

whatever makes you happy tommy...
whatever makes you happy...

By Blogger Carroll, at Mon Oct 03, 07:51:00 PM  

but it made the season a lot more exciting...=)

By Anonymous Anonymous, at Wed Oct 05, 10:33:00 AM  

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