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Saturday, June 18, 2005


Last time, I wrote about the weak correlation between ERA and a pitcher's W-L record. To illustrate this further, I decided to compare this correlation with some other correlations.

IP/GS is innings per start, K/GS is strikeouts per start, and WHIP is baserunners per inning.

Correlations With ERA
Group Winning % IP/GS K/GS WHIP
All Pitchers -0.36 -0.62 -0.60 0.81
3.50+ ERA -0.13 -0.51 -0.32 0.67

Relative to these other stats, winning percentage has a weak correlation with ERA.

Here's another table, similar to the one in my previous post.

ERA Winning % IP/GS K/GS WHIP
0.00 - 3.00 0.627 6.8 7.4 1.05
3.00 - 3.50 0.640 6.6 5.1 1.20
3.50 - 4.00 0.528 6.4 4.9 1.29
4.00 - 4.50 0.555 6.4 4.1 1.35
4.50 - 5.00 0.511 6.2 3.8 1.40
5.00 - 5.50 0.495 5.8 3.7 1.49
5.50+ 0.500 5.8 4.0 1.56

Look at the trends. IP/GS, K/GS, and WHIP all have consistent increases or decreases when compared to ERA (except for the last K/GS row). Winning percentage clearly doesn't.


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