As I've mentioned before, I'm thinking about making an investment in some baseball predictions this year.

(Other people might call this sports betting, but given how much I trust Baseball Prospectus and their projection systems, it's really more like investing in the stock market.)

The key with my investment rests on the following:
1) I bet on how a team fares over 162 games, not how they do in 7 games in the post-season.
2) I diversify my betting, and don't put all my eggs in one basket.
3) I only place bets where my expected profit is at least 20%.

I believe that Baseball Prospectus can do a better job of predicting team records than the Vegas oddsmakers. The oddsmakers are forced to sway with the mainstream media, because they need to react to how the general population will wager.

(For this reason, you shouldn't bet for the Yankees. Since so many others are betting for them to win, you're never going to get proper odds.)

Here are my calculations:

Team	Wager	Odds	Investment	Probability	Expected Profit	% Profit
Boston	Win AL East	4.00	40.00	0.50	40.00	100%
Florida	NOT win 86	1.90	20.00	0.70	6.60	33%
Houston	NOT win 84	1.85	20.00	0.70	5.90	30%
Mets	NOT win 85	1.85	20.00	0.70	5.90	30%
Yankees	NOT win 103	1.85	15.00	0.65	3.04	20%
Oakland	win 78	1.60	15.00	0.75	3.00	20%
San Diego	NOT win 87	1.85	20.00	0.70	5.90	30%

Worst-case scenario	-150.00
Expected scenario	+70.34
Best-case scenario	+210.75

Anyone want to try to make a profit with me?

I'm definitely willing to listen to suggestions and do the bulk of the work tweaking the wagering pattern. Also, if you're a fan of a particular team, I can adjust your particular portion of the wager so that you' re not betting against your team or for a rival team. (Note that because I'm an Angels fan, I didn't take the A's winning the AL West at 6.5:1.)

Of course, if you're skeptical about how I'm doing this, I can give you a more detailed explanation.