My current cell phone, the Motorola V60, has lasted almost 3 years now (I got it in July 2002), and I've used it for 235 hours (almost 10 full days) of talk time.

Unfortunately, the battery life is really short now, and the antenna broke off a few days ago.

Anybody have suggestions on which cell phone I should get next?

I finished my baseball investment spreadsheet (for now). Time to start placing some bets...

Let me know if you want a copy of the spreadsheet and I haven't e-mailed it to you.

I ate at Chevy's for lunch for the second time in the last 2 weeks.

I'll make sure to mention this to my roommates, because they both hate Chevy's more than any other restaurant.

It's pretty funny how I can just mention the word Chevy's and they'll start getting really frustrated. Then they'll complain a bit about how the food, service, and price aren't good.

I don't think Chevy's is all that great or anything, but I just can't imagine having so much passionate hatred for a restaurant.

This will be a very busy weekend. Why? Let me count the ways:

1) I expect to be playing at least 10 hours of poker.

2) I have 2 fantasy baseball drafts (one on Sunday and one on Monday) that I need to prepare for.

3) I will watch several hours of the NCAA tournament because I'm doing really well in my office pool.

What a great way to spend the weekend of Good Friday and Easter.

More research into the baseball win distributions:

I looked at the difference distribution again, and it appears that the difference distribution follows the normal curve. I wasn't looking at the standard deviations yesterday, which I should have.

Furthermore, I compared teams in the top 25% of expected wins, bottom 25% of expected wins, and the 25th-75th percentiles. Basically, I wanted to determine if the difference distribution was dependent on a team's expected win total.

The standard deviations for these groups were as follows (the overall SD was 9.7):

E(W)	SD
more than 88	9.3
74-88	10.4
less than 74	8.6

These are statistically significant differences. And contrary to my earlier beliefs, there is more variance in the middle of the pack.

So here is an updated list of the teams that generate a 20% profit rate when using the Baseball Prospectus expected win totals, a normal difference distribution with the above SD in each of the 3 scenarios, and the Vegas odds listed here.

Team	BP E(W)	Vegas E(W)	Diff	z = Diff/SD	Probability	Odds	Expected Profit %
LAA	83	92	-9	-0.87	81%	1.83	48%
NYY	95	102	-7	-0.75	77%	1.80	39%
ATL	82	89	-7	-0.67	75%	1.83	37%
FLO	80	85	-5	-0.48	68%	2.00	37%
COL	72	68	4	0.47	68%	1.90	29%
OAK	88	78	10	0.96	83%	1.53	27%
HOU	78	83	-5	-0.48	68%	1.80	23%
KC	69	65	4	0.47	68%	1.80	22%

Some notes:
-If the difference is negative, then we'd bet on the under, and vice versa.
-The probabilities of winning our bet are based on the z value and the normal distribution table.
-The expected profit % is found by multiplying the probability with the odds, and subtracting 1.

But no, I will not be betting on the under for the Angels.

Andy Chang asked the most important question about my baseball investment strategy:

How did I come up with the probabilities in my chart?

For example, if the Angels are projected by Baseball Prospectus to win 86 games, and they are projected by the Vegas oddsmakers to win 92.5 games, how would I determine the probability that they will win 92 or fewer games?

It is important that I answer this question, because all of my assumptions about expected profit and profit % are based on these probabilities.

In my previous post, I simply guessed what they might be.

But after doing more research today, I can now generate a more accurate value for these probabilities.

In order to determine the probabilities, I needed to look at past data and find out how each team's actual number of wins differed from their expected number of wins.

I used the Diamond-Mind pre-season projected team standings from 1998-2004. The Diamond-Mind projections have proven to be more accurate than most other projections, and this data should be comparable to the results from Baseball Propsectus (for which I don't have data).

The following is part of the cumulative distribution chart for the difference between actual wins and expected wins for 210 data points (30 teams over 7 years):

W - E(W)	Cumulative Distribution
-10	17%
-9	20%
-8	22%
-7	25%
-6	29%
-5	33%
-4	35%
-3	40%
-2	43%
-1	47%
0	51%
1	55%
2	59%
3	62%
4	68%
5	72%
6	75%
7	80%
8	82%
9	85%
10	86%

The chart above can help us create a new chart.

If we go back to our question about the Angels, what we need to do now is add the Angels' expected win total to the first column, and then we will have the distribution of the Angels' win totals.

2005 Angels Win Total	Cumulative Distribution
76	17%
77	20%
78	22%
79	25%
80	29%
81	33%
82	35%
83	40%
84	43%
85	47%
86	51%
87	55%
88	59%
89	62%
90	68%
91	72%
92	75%
93	80%
94	82%
95	85%
96	86%

Now we have the answer to our original question:

According to Baseball Prospectus' expected win total and my cumulative distribution of win differences, the Angels will win 92 or fewer games approximately 75% of the time.

A quick update on my previous post:

Since Barry Bonds might be out for the season, I now have to take the under on the Giants winning 89 games this year.

Current odds for the Giants are as follows:
Wager: NOT win 89 games
Odds: 1.80
Investment: 20.00
Probability: .70
Expected Profit: 5.20
% Profit: 26%

Worst-case scenario: -170.00
Expected scenario: +75.54
Best-case scenario: +246.75

I don't know how quickly the oddsmakers are going to take to adjust the odds on the Giants, so I might have to act on this particular bet a bit quicker than I'd like.

As I've mentioned before, I'm thinking about making an investment in some baseball predictions this year.

(Other people might call this sports betting, but given how much I trust Baseball Prospectus and their projection systems, it's really more like investing in the stock market.)

The key with my investment rests on the following:
1) I bet on how a team fares over 162 games, not how they do in 7 games in the post-season.
2) I diversify my betting, and don't put all my eggs in one basket.
3) I only place bets where my expected profit is at least 20%.

I believe that Baseball Prospectus can do a better job of predicting team records than the Vegas oddsmakers. The oddsmakers are forced to sway with the mainstream media, because they need to react to how the general population will wager.

(For this reason, you shouldn't bet for the Yankees. Since so many others are betting for them to win, you're never going to get proper odds.)

Here are my calculations:

Team	Wager	Odds	Investment	Probability	Expected Profit	% Profit
Boston	Win AL East	4.00	40.00	0.50	40.00	100%
Florida	NOT win 86	1.90	20.00	0.70	6.60	33%
Houston	NOT win 84	1.85	20.00	0.70	5.90	30%
Mets	NOT win 85	1.85	20.00	0.70	5.90	30%
Yankees	NOT win 103	1.85	15.00	0.65	3.04	20%
Oakland	win 78	1.60	15.00	0.75	3.00	20%
San Diego	NOT win 87	1.85	20.00	0.70	5.90	30%

Worst-case scenario	-150.00
Expected scenario	+70.34
Best-case scenario	+210.75

Anyone want to try to make a profit with me?

I'm definitely willing to listen to suggestions and do the bulk of the work tweaking the wagering pattern. Also, if you're a fan of a particular team, I can adjust your particular portion of the wager so that you' re not betting against your team or for a rival team. (Note that because I'm an Angels fan, I didn't take the A's winning the AL West at 6.5:1.)

Of course, if you're skeptical about how I'm doing this, I can give you a more detailed explanation.

Well, wouldn't you know it... things fell my way this weekend for my tournament bracket.

The highlights of my bracket are:
-(10) North Carolina State making it to the Sweet 16
-6 of my Elite 8 are still standing, and
-my entire Final 4 is alive.

At the end of today's games, I'm now 2nd out of 55 in my office pool. If I'm in the top 4, I make money.

I've never cared about college basketball so much in my life...

I filled out my bracket today.

Don't ask me why, but I have the following as my Final Four:
(3) Arizona
(4) Louisville
(1) North Carolina
(1) Duke

Take note, because this means they're all going to lose sometime during the second weekend. Basically, I'm donating $5 to my office pool.

I didn't take any NyQuil last night for the first time in 5 days because I'm pretty much recovered from the illness I had the past couple weeks.

Ben, our small group leader, doesn't think NyQuil has much of an effect on him. But I slept noticeably better when I took it, and was always groggy when I woke up the morning after.

I didn't sleep as well last night without it, presumably because my body was used to the NyQuil.

That wasn't really worth mentioning, but I don't have anything else to say right now.

I went to Phil and Jessica's wedding on Saturday. It was good, but I was helping out as an usher, so I missed most of the ceremony.

The most surprising event of the day had to be when Gee-Won leaped up in the air to catch the garter. Everyone, including me, was shocked that he made such an effort to catch it. The people behind him had to get out of his way to make sure he didn't knock them down.

The best part was what Jessica said to Gee-Won after he caught it:
"I didn't even know you were here!"

I've been sick lately, but it's not nearly as bad as Basile had it the past couple weeks. He's now just finally getting his voice back after not being able to speak for a week.

He had laryngitis, bronchitis, pink eye, a really nasty cough, and a lot of other things. I'm assuming I got my sickness from him, but I haven't had any of these symptoms. At least not yet...

Some of my co-workers are European soccer fans, so today at lunch we watched the Chelsea-Barcelona Champions League game.

In the knock-out stage, teams play 2 games against their opponents-- one game at home, and one on the road.

Here's the tiebreaker system:
1) The team that has the most combined goals in both games advances.
2) If they're tied, then the team who scored the most goals in their road game advances.
3) If both teams win once with the exact same score in each game, then they go to overtime and penalty kicks in the second game.

Barcelona won the first game at home 2-1.

Here's a summary of the tiebreaker scenario at 2 different points during the game:

Chelsea 1, Barcelona 0.
Aggregate goals: Chelsea 2, Barcelona 2.
Road goals: Chelsea 1, Barcelona 0.
Chelsea would advance to the next round.

Chelsea 3, Barcelona 2.
Aggregate goals: Chelsea 4, Barcelona 4.
Road goals: Barcelona 2, Chelsea 1.
Barcelona would advance to the next round.

Chelsea ended up winning the game 4-2. Their final goal was meaningless to the outcome of the individual game, but was necessary for them to advance to the next round.

How strange. They should do what hockey does... have each playoff game continue on until someone scores a sudden-death goal in overtime.

Baseball Prospectus projected standings:

AL West
Oakland 91-71
Los Angeles/Anaheim 86-76
Texas 82-80
Seattle 80-82

Whoever wins this division will have earned it. I think the Angels are the favorite, but that's based more on loyalty to the team and brainwashing by the media than it is on hard evidence.

If you didn't take the 13:1 odds on the A's winning the division, you missed your chance. It's now down to a much more reasonable 6.5:1 on the website I mentioned last week.

AL Central
Minnesota 86-76
Cleveland 86-76
Chicago 81-81
Detroit 76-86
Kansas City 71-91

The Twins are the favorites, but if catastrophe strikes Johan Santana, Joe Mauer, and/or Justin Morneau, the Indians should be ready to take the division.

AL East
Boston 100-62
New York 97-65
Baltimore 82-80
Toronto 75-87
Tampa Bay 71-91

The 4:1 odds on the Red Sox winning the division are still available. And when 3/5ths of the Yankee rotation gets injured, you'll be wishing you had placed a bet.

NL West
San Francisco 86-76
San Diego 80-82
Los Angeles 78-84
Colorado 72-90
Arizona 71-91

Paul DePodesta still has some learning to do if his team can't beat a bunch of 38 year-olds.

NL Central
St Louis 90-72
Chicago 89-73
Houston 78-84
Cincinnati 75-87
Milwaukee 73-89
Pittsburgh 70-92

The Cubs will win the division if their star pitchers stay healthy. Too bad that won't happen.

NL East
Philadelphia 87-75
Atlanta 80-82
New York 80-82
Florida 80-82
Washington 73-89

Baseball Prospectus projected the 2004 Phillies to win the NL East by 14 games. So what they're really saying is that we should expect a total dogfight for this division, with the Braves being the favorite because they have Leo Mazzone.

Today our company had a Texas Hold'Em lunch time tournament.

There were 8 people at my table, and the person with the most chips at the end of the lunch hour moved on to the final table (in 2 weeks) to play for a $200 Costco card.

Play went faster than I've ever seen. Our table lasted for about 12 hands, and we played for about 25 minutes before the winner knocked out the other 7 players (he knocked out 3 of us, including me, on the same hand).

I lost when I went all-in with K-10 offsuit on a short stack, but the hand that hurt me most was when I had K clubs-Q clubs and the flop came out J hearts-J clubs-10 clubs.

With a straight flush draw, I had to chase because the bets were small relative to the size of the pot. The last 2 cards were 7 hearts and then 10 spades, so I folded after seeing the river. (The winner of this hand had a full house- Jacks over tens.)

One of my co-workers really likes The Daily Show With Jon Stewart. Through his influence, I'm starting to like it a lot more now.

The first segment of the show is usually pretty good, but you can pretty much stop watching after that. The next segment is usually 3 minutes long, with 5 minutes of commercials surrounding it. And he ends with an interview that I almost never watch.