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Monday, March 29, 2004


Prognostications for the 2004 baseball season:

AL East
Ever since the Devil Rays joined the AL East in 1998, the division has finished in the following order in every season:
Yankees
Red Sox
Blue Jays
Orioles
Devil Rays

Already, it looks like injuries will play a large role in determining if this year will be any different. Both the Yankees and Red Sox are old and brittle, but they have the resources to avoid catastrophe. The division race will probably be meaningless since the loser should get the wild card.

AL Central
Twins
White Sox
Royals
Indians
Tigers

And the race to 85 wins is on! This division isn't as bad as the AL West circa 1994, but the only reason that the division winner won't finish below .500 is that they play each other so much.

AL West
A's
Angels
Mariners
Rangers

I know, I know. I am an Angel fan. I have faith in my team. Yes, I think they can win the World Series this year. But I'm not going to expect them to make up 19 games on an A's team whose 96 wins last year was their lowest total in 3 years.

NL East
Phillies
Braves
Expos
Marlins
Mets

The Braves' run of division titles depends more on the Phillies than them. On paper, the Phils are the best team in the National League, but Larry Bowa has a way of flushing all of his competitive advantages down the toilet.

NL Central
Astros/Cubs-Doesn't matter who finishes first, since both make the playoffs anyway.
Cardinals
Reds
Brewers
Pirates

It looks like the wild card will strip away any drama that this year's pennant races might have had. Meanwhile, the Cardinals could be the 3rd best team in the league and still finish 5 games behind a playoff spot.

NL West
Padres
Diamondbacks
Giants
Dodgers
Rockies

Formula for predicting this division: Draw a team out of a hat, and insert into standings. Repeat 4 times... Outside of the Rockies finishing first, I would not be surprised by any order in this division's standings.

I'm not gonna try to guess what's gonna happen in the playoffs. As Billy Beane says, it's just a crapshoot anyways.


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