I was so bored at work today that I made a graph of the likelihood of winning a head-to-head fantasy football matchup based on points scored that week.

My brother-in-law's league uses the following scoring system: 6 pts for TDs, 1 pt for 20 pass yards, 1 pt for 10 rush/rec yards, and the other settings are standard.

Here are some stats (yes, I know 5 weeks is a small sample):
Mean: 85.6
Median: 87
SD: 23.9

A team that scored 70 points had a 30% chance of winning the matchup.
80 points, 45%
90 points, 60%
100 points, 72%